It is something I don’t talk about very often but I love science, biology , biotech and in I try to stay up to date on these topics so from time to time I try to read scientific divulgation books.
I had some pending books on my “to-read list” so in November I bought three of those books (birthday present to myself) and spent the Christmas holidays reading them. I’ll share some notes in this post.
1. The emperor of all Maladies: This has become a classic book on the subject of cancer and has received extensive media coverage (it even became a PBS documentary). The books tells the story of cancer, how the first treatments were developed and why it is so complex and hard to cure. Some Insights and facts that caught my attention reading this book:
- Until “very recently” , we were in the dark ages of medicine: From the perspective of scientific and technological progress, the 1800’s don’t feel so far away. I don’t know why but in my head I had imagined these period somehow as being part of our “modernity”, yet it was only in 1846 that we started using anesthesia to do surgeries, and in 1867 we started using carbolic acid to perform surgeries. No doubt surgeries were perceived as a last resource remedy. Imagine the agony and the risk involved in a simple surgery.
- As a disease Cancer has been documented since very ancient times. In 1862 Edwin Smith an American Egyptologist, purchased a Papyrus in Luxor, Egypt from an Egyptian dealer. It happened to be an ancient medical text, describing 48 cases of injuries, fractures, wounds, dislocations and yes, a case (number 45) that seems to describe a breast tumor.
- How aggressive , disruptive and experimental the evolution of treatments have been. In our attempt to eradicate malignant cancer cells the treatment itself almost kills us.
- A lot of progress has been made both in treating and preventing cancer and there are genetic treatment that have demonstrated excellent results but the book explains that part of the complexity in our fight to defeat cancer is that it exploits the fundamental logic of evolution unlike any other illness. Even though we are closer than ever to target very specific mutations (as described in the other books covered in this article) we are not even close to understand the million ways that the approximately 20,000 proteins in our cell interact with dozens if not hundreds of other proteins so that altering one specific mutation to prevent cancer does not lead to an unexpected additional mutation worst that the original.
2 . I Contain Multitudes: We have always perceived microbes and parasites as something to avoid at all costs, they are to blame for terrible diseases. Ed Yong’s book take us on a tour to the latest research about microbes and gives a more nuanced and balanced view about these very special creatures that live inside and among us.
With the use of Metagenomics we are now able to detect at a very precise degree, what combination of microbes exist in a biological sample. The latests research shows that microbes are very relevant to our general well-being, so we shouldn’t try to avoid them,and instead we should strive to get a balanced mix of microbes. They not only influence how we digest food. They play a major role in our complete immune system, our mental well being and are related to diseases as Autism, IBD, Depression and Obesity to name a few. The immune system isn’t just a means of controlling microbes. It is at least partly controlled by microbes.
It has been shown that the use of Probiotics doesn’t really make a big difference in our gut microbiome balance, but when we eat certain foods, we feed our microbes and indirectly promote the growth of some microbes over the other, this is called Prebiotics.
Just as genetic sequencing gave birth to companies like 23andMe offering sequencing as a commercial product to end users. There are a few companies now that can give you personalized health recommendations based on your gut biome and also early success stories in therapeutic use.
It is worth noting that, as a Science Journalist, Ed Yong made a terrific job covering Covid-19 during 2020 in the Atlantic. I also recommend taking a look at his TED talk.
3. Editing Humanity: This is the most recent of the three books. It covers the story of how the new CRISPR gene editing techniques developed. The scientists and labs behind them (also the patent disputes). The breakthroughs and innovation in disease treatment currently being developed and the inevitable arrival of the possibility of human genomic editing and the implications to us as a society.
CRISPR is part of the bacteria inmune system, it is a mechanism that allow bacteria to defend against viruses by cutting their DNA ( viruses are some of the bacterias fiercest enemies).
This book, tells the story of how the mechanism was first discovered by a Spanish scientist and confirmed by some researchers from a Danish dairy company, then it describes how this mechanism was engineered (taking advantage of the latest mRNA research) , so that we could tell the enzymes the exact piece of DNA to cut and replace it with a new sequence.
The book also explains how error prone the first experiments where with the basic CRISPR Cas9 mechanism and how the technology is evolving to become a precise “molecular editor” capable of replacing single bases without cutting DNA.
One major difference in the approach to gene editing is whether it used to edit someone cell to repair an unwanted mutation that causes a disease (somatic gene editing) versus editing a single reproductive cell or gamete, just before the fertilization takes places.
The first approach involves fixing DNA in millions of cells and is error prone, the second approach involves just editing one single cell but it makes the change heritable, so it basically implies the potential ability to alter human evolution. This has triggered a lot of debate in the scientific community, specially because most of the tools and supplies to perform have a very low barrier to entry.
Since I read Ray Kurzweil’s book The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (back in 2005) I have tried to follow up on the promise of Genetics, Nanotechnology and Robotics. Of the three , I guess Nanotechnology really has not delivered on Kurzweil expectations (who by the way , works at Google since 2012), but Robotics has continued to evolve to a very impressive degree, you can check the Boston Dynamics Christmas christmas robot dance.
But of the three, I think nothing has evolved as fast, as genetics and biotech in general.
We have been hearing that software is eating the world, but now we also now that bio is eating the world. Advances in Biotechnology are evolving at neck breaking speed. Just a few years ago this all sounded like science fiction but just as I was finished reading these books DeepMind announced the Protein Folding problem has practically been solved.
Like the Silicon Valley Startup ecosystem, there is a whole ecosystem of biotech startups. This is also leading to a whole new wave of investment opportunities.
Having the ability to edit genes in a precise way while also solving the folding problem are two major achievements, I wonder why they receive so little attention.
I am sure in the following years (months?) we will be hearing a lot of new discoveries and breakthroughs.
Managing Your Investments Late in the Cycle: Nobody knows for sure whether equities will keep rising or for how long, but knowing a little market history can help ease the anxiety.
The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin Billionaire Arthur Hayes.
On Attitudes to Risk: GameStop, Covid and how we perceive Risk.
Worrisome New Coronavirus Strains Are Emerging. Why Now? (Wired)
The problem with prediction: Cognitive scientists and corporations alike see human minds as predictive machines. Right or wrong, they will change how we think
Currencies, Commodities, Collectibles and Cryptos (from NYU’s Prof. Aswath Damodaran)
The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
Both Michael Lewis (The Big Short” , “Moneyball”) and Malcolm Gladwell (“Outliers”, “The Tipping Point”) have new books.
Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction (Book Summary from Richard Hughes Jones)
Ten computer codes that transformed science: From Fortran to arXiv.org, these advances in programming and platforms sent biology, climate science and physics into warp speed.
Two interesting profiles on the Reddit Gamestop craze in NYT and WSJ ( via Matt Levine’s Money Stuff).
In 2018 Morgan Housel (ex-WSJ columnist and Collaborative Fund partner) wrote a report outlining the most important flaws, biases, and causes of “Bad Behaviour” affecting people’s dealing with their money, the report became very popular, so he decided to write a book and deep dive into those topics. These are some notes from the book:
- No one is crazy: Money decisions are hard and some biases are “hardwired” into our own perceptions and experiences, but “no one is crazy”.
- Luck and Risk: We should avoid confusing luck with good judgment and bad outcomes with bad judgment. This topic is what Annie Duke calls “resulting” in her book Thinking in Bets.
- Never Enough: When setting financial goals, know when enough is enough. Know when to stop the goal post from moving.
- Confounding Compounding: Basic finance but highly underrated point, just slightly above average but constant and consistent returns are very powerful.
- Getting Wealthy vs Staying Wealthy:Never risk the option to be around long enough for compounding biggest benefits to take effect.
- Tails you Win: You have to get used to the fact that big returns come from tail events. You can be wrong half the time and still make a fortune (Avoid Loss Aversion , take risks)
- Freedom: Time is the highest dividend money pays
- Man in the Car Paradox: Money rarely gains the admiration we imagine.Being nice does.
- Wealth is what you don’t see: The world is filled with people who look modest but are actually wealthy and people who look rich who live at the razors edge of insolvency.
- Save: That’s it. Just Save. It will give you flexibility and the chance to wait for good opportunities in your career and in your investments.
- Reasonable vs Rational: Do not aim to be coldly rational when making financial decisions. Aim to be just pretty reasonable. Reasonable is more realistic, and you have a better chance of sticking with it for the long run.
- Surprise: Few things stay the same for very long, wich means we can’t treat historians as prophets. That doesn’t mean we should avoid history when when thinking about money. But there’s an important nuance: The further back in history you look, the more general your takeaways should be. General things like people’s relationship to greed and fear, how they behave under stress, and how they respond to incentives tend to be stable in time. The history of money is useful for that kind of stuff.
- Room for Error: The wisdom in having room for error is acknowledging that uncertainty, randomness, and chance are an ever present part of life. Margin of Safety is the only effective way to safely navigate a world that is governed by odds, not certainties. You have to take risks to get ahead, but no risk that can wipe you out is ever worth taking: You can be risk loving and yet completely averse to ruin.
- You’ll change: Avoid Sunk Costs fallacy and adjust your strategy or financial decisions as necessary.
- Nothing is Free: Returns require to accept volatility as the price you have to pay. Market returns are never free and never will be. They demand you pay a price, like any other product.
- You and Me: Identify what is your personal investment strategy i.e. what “game” are you playing and avoid taking advice from people playing a different game that yours.
- Seduction of Pessimism: Optimism is the best bet for most people because the world tends to get better for most people most of the time. But pessimism holds a special place in our hearts. The short sting of pessimism prevails while the powerful pull of optimism goes unnoticed. Once again , we should be care of loss aversion.
- When you’ll believe anything: The more you want something to be true, the more likely you are to believe a story that overestimates the odds of it being true. As has been studied extensively we frequently fall prey to Confirmation Bias and Hindsight Bias
The book ends with two additional chapters , chapter 19 summarizes the previous points. And chapter 20 gives an account of how the author manages his finances when it comes to savings and investing.
At the end of the book there is one additional Chapter that gives an account of why the average us consumer think the way they do (from an Historical Perspective).
I enjoyed the book, it does a good work summarizing some of the most common cognitive bias applied to finance and money.
On Chess and Concentration: Unless we can learn to concentrate better, we have no chance of perceiving, thinking, talking and deciding in the ways required of us in the 21st century.
How Claude Shannon Invented the Future